A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
